Research notes¶

Dated working memos, kept as written. They record what was measured and what was being considered at the time, and they are deliberately not revised as the system changes.

These are snapshots, not maintained pages

A claim in a memo was true when its author wrote it. Where a memo and the rest of the documentation disagree, the documentation is current and the memo is history. For the state of the system today, see Methods and Limitations.

Several of these memos propose work that has since shipped, and several propose work that was subsequently declined — see Bibliography §2.

Memo	Date	What it is
Evaluation review	2026-07-26	Measured-state review: what the first live week actually showed, code status against the July roadmap, a methods-literature survey mapped to measured gaps, and a sequenced recommendation. Its central finding — the binding constraint is operational, not methodological — still holds.
Improvement methods	2026-07	Literature-driven improvement plan: adaptive diurnal bias correction (EWMA hour-of-day, Kalman, SAMOS) and fixing data starvation (Ensemble API, NBM, sub-24h backfill, neighbour truth, radar minutely precipitation). Much of the first half has shipped — see Grounding.
Week 2 provider diagnostic	2026-08-04	Data-driven diagnostic: horizon census, `temp_c` and `humidity_pct` error by lead bin, findings and the actions taken.
Cross-cutting summary	—	Synthesis across the three: trade-offs between method families, pushback specific to this project, and what to decide up front.